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2011-11-18 11:48:36|  分类: 默认分类 |  标签: |举报 |字号 订阅

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That is the unuttered matter that underlies the ritualistic argument over arms sales. The true guarantee of Taiwan's security is not the technological level of its own armed forces. It is the assumption that, in the event of mainland aggression, America would come to its aid---an intervention that China's military modernisation is designed to deter. But the Taiwan Relations Act does not fully commit America to Taiwan's defence (rather "to" consider any effort to determine the future of Taiwan by other than peaceful means... of grave concern to the United States".) And both China and Taiwan will have heard some American voices doubting the value of the de facto alliance with Taiwan.

For the moment, with relations between Taiwan and China better than they have ever been, such concerns seem hypothetical. But closer economic and people-to-people ties seem to have cation with China. If anything, support for the status quo is stronger than it was. And so relations could easily sour again---for example if, as is quite possible, the DPP wins next January's presidential election. Pushed by popular nationalism and confident in a newly modernised army, it is conceivable that China might become a more immediate military threat to Taiwan. A robut American commitment remains the best deterrent. Better still would be for China to remove the missiles and abandon its threat to use military means to reunify Taiwan if necessary. That option, however, is not in the alphabet.
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